Premier League Predictions and best bets: Manchester City and Manchester United to suffer defeats

Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight ahead of a busy midweek card.

When the pressure mounts on Sean Dyche, back to basics is the order of the day to restore some momentum.

This leads to his teams playing even safer than usual in a bid for a clean sheet. That's why, as punters, we can put faith in the under 2.5 goals line at 4/5 with Sky Bet in a game where the tension will be high.

Everton are the kings of the under 2.5 goals bet, with eight of their last 10 doing the business. This one should be another as Dyche's boys grind out an important win.

Fair play if you possess the bravery to back Manchester City at 2/7 with Sky Bet as they bid to snap their extraordinary seven-game winless run. I'm taking the very simple approach of, when I've seen evidence that Pep Guardiola can fix City without possession, I'll then start thinking about jumping on their prices. This isn't the time yet.

They were ravaged by Liverpool in every department and Nottingham Forest are tactically City's worst nightmare, in that they'll defend deep and then use their pace and power on the counter.

So far across the whole of the Premier League campaign, only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton - the three promoted clubs - have conceded more big chances than Man City in the Premier League. That's bonkers.

There are lots of live Forest angles to consider but the standout is both teams to score at 20/23 with Sky Bet.

One potential edge on my radar is midweek domestic matches and the cards lines.

There is some evidence developing that midweek evening kick-offs aren't producing the same number of cards as the overall season average and it's providing punting opportunities.

Last season, Premier League games played on a Tuesday-Thursday averaged 3.9 cards per match, which was lower than the overall average of 4.4 across the season.

That 0.5 of a card difference may not seem a lot but can make a huge difference to fine-margin pricing and outcomes of card markets.

Andy Madley is a very lenient referee, too. Only Paul Tierney is averaging fewer cards per game than Madley's 3.96 of referees to have officiated 20 or more Premier League games. In a game I'm fully expecting Liverpool to win without much fuss, the game could drift and the 28/1 on no player to be carded is a live outsider at the prices.

This is a tough spot for Southampton, who have been hit hard by injuries and suspensions coming into this match.

Their two best goalkeepers are missing through injury and the trip to Brighton proved costly, with Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Tyler Dibling picking up their fifth bookings of the season, so they are missing for this one.

Chelsea are as short as 1/4 with Sky Bet to leave with maximum points so we need to boost that price by adding Southampton to win most cards to the mix, which brings out a 23/10 shot with Sky Bet.

Russell Martin's team are aggressive without the ball and have been shown more cards than their opponents in seven of their last eight Premier League games.

Manchester United are back, then? Or more likely they are about to be brought crashing back down to earth by playing one of the best teams in Europe?

I think Ruben Amorim knows how difficult this fixture will be based on what he's seen so far. His team were flattered with the 4-0 win over Everton, scoring those four from just 11 shots and somehow escaping conceding during a very wobbly first-half performance.

Ruben Amorim urges Man Utd caution: The storm will come, we will be found out

If they offer up the same level of chances to Arsenal, they will get punished. United are 13/2 with Sky Bet for victory, which tells the story of how much of a shock an away win would be.

With Martin Odegaard purring and Bukayo Saka roaring, Arsenal have the tools to cover their -1 handicap and win by more than one goal at Evens with Sky Bet.

Aston Villa are now eight games without a win in all competitions, which has seen them slip into the bottom half of the Premier League.

The curse of overachievement and outperforming expectations is taking it's toll on Unai Emery's team, who look flat and easy to score against. It is now just one clean sheet in Villa's last 18 Premier League games and they've conceded a whopping 34 goals in that period to a per-game average of 1.88. Only Wolves and West Ham have conceded more goals in that time.

Brentford have been spotted by the market, though, and are shorter than I expected at 16/5 with Sky Bet - a price that makes no appeal based on their horrendous road record. Goals are the play, then, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looking good at 20/23.

Brighton proved against Southampton that they have been overperforming defensively.

Fabian Hurzeler's side have the sixth-worst defensive output, according to the expected-goals metrics, and can find themselves fortunate to be so high in the table based on that output. Going forward, they are a threat with Kaoru Mitoma in fine form, but Fulham should get big opportunities.

My eyes are drawn to Alex Iwobi to score at 100/30. He's had 12 shots in his last five games, scoring twice as he's taken up some very dangerous positions off the right wing.

Andoni Iraola is going to land himself a top job soon enough if he continues to keep Bournemouth playing such exciting, dangerous and consistent football.

Even without their talisman in Antoine Semenyo and skipper Lewis Cook at Wolves, they played with the same intensity and quality as their press completely dominated. They are like clockwork under Iraola - and they look a strong play here to beat Tottenham, who on their day can beat anyone but are really feeling the pinch playing twice a week without their key defensive reinforcements. The 13/8 with Sky Bet for the home is a really appealing price to ponder.